The Future of Space Is About to Get Really Cheap

Unless you live under a rock, and you’re on the internet so I’m going to assume that’s not the case, you saw SpaceX catch a SuperHeavy booster out of the air this past weekend. While that gentle plucking from the sky has been hypothesized about for a while, Sunday’s attempt was the first attempt at the novel landing for SpaceX.

That “landing” was a massive step forward. Not just for SpaceX, but for a spacefaring humanity. Sure, SpaceX has been landing boosters for a while, but the company hasn’t been landing anything near the size of the SuperHeavy.

Landing this 70 meter tall behemoth right back where it will launch from saves SpaceX from needing to install a very heavy set of legs, and it saves the logistic and monetary nightmare of needing to move 275,000kg (~600,000lb) a few miles from lander to launcher.

Over the last few years we’ve seen the cost per kg to low-Earth orbit plummet thanks to SpaceX. The Space Shuttle cost close to $100k per kilogram and Falcon Heavy has brought us much closer to $1,500. Starship will, likely within the next couple of years bring us near $100.

Starship will do to space what the Silk Road did to Earth. Low cost transportation of goods will no longer be contained to our atmosphere, but will be possible “to infinity and beyond.” Well, I guess not quite “infinity” (yet).

Just a decade ago, the big question when dealing with space was “how do we make this lighter.” What we witnessed yesterday is rapidly making that a question not even worth asking. Instead, the question of the future is going to be “what can we do next?”

So, What Can We Do Next?

There are still a number of test launches SpaceX needs to run to make Starship viable, but once it is we’d be on a rapid path to $100/kg. This new price point would not only democratize access to space, but it would also catalyze innovation across multiple industries.

Let’s start with the more obvious applications, and get towards “sci-fi” at the end. Obviously, SpaceX will use Starship to continue expanding Starlink. We’ve seen recently the enabling of space-based cellular connections which allow T-Mobile customers to send emergency text messages. That kind of thing will happen much quicker.

In fact, I’d think that we start seeing SpaceX utilizing the Starship test flights to deploy new Starlink satellites fairly soon. We know that Starship is capable of making it to orbit, why not get some value out of those tests?

Imaging

Companies like Planet Labs and BlackSky today have constellations of satellites that image the planet tens of times per day. A much cheaper cost of launch will permit more of these imaging devices. Real-time monitoring from space is likely in our future.

That sounds a bit dystopian at a glance – surveillance from the sky, but real-time monitoring could allow for tracking of wildfires and hurricanes with ease. It could allow for search and rescue missions across vast spaces, and more things that we’re not even considering today.

Manufacturing

In-orbit manufacturing will see a boom too. We have the likes of Varda Space trying out pharmaceuticals right now, and they’re likely to be joined by many more aspiring companies.

Due to the microgravity of orbit, materials that are difficult or even impossible to create on Earth can be easily made in space. Varda, for example, uses microgravity to manufacture larger crystals for use in pharmaceuticals. I’m not even going to pretend to know the science behind that, but space makes those crystals bigger.

There’s also the potential for super alloys, materials that can be lighter and stronger than those made on Earth.

Again, much like with imaging, there’s the potential for additional use cases outside of those that are already in the works. Tissue engineering and space based agriculture are two “out there” ideas.

Tourism

Private citizens have already started venturing into the final frontier, but over the next decade this type of vacation is likely to be more within touch of “normal” people.

You won’t be switching out a trip to Disney World with one to the ISS, but one could easily see a couple of companies starting to form space hotels. Axiom Space is already working on their space station, and more will join them.

Should the price of launch really get to $100/kg, a 220lb human would be a $10,000 ticket. Throw in a stay on a space station, some luggage, and a return flight home – $50,000 to $100,000 would be a price tag within reach.

Asteroid Mining

I said we’d get into sci-fi territory, didn’t I? Well, asteroid mining is a pretty fringe idea.

Asteroid mining is exactly how it sounds, there are valuable resources within asteroids that could be useful here on Earth, on the Moon, on Mars, or on longer range space missions.

What’s out there? Gold, platinum, rhodium would be useful here on Earth, although large volumes could drastically disrupt the markets here on Earth. Iron, nickel and cobalt might be useful to send to the Moon if a base ends up there. Water, too. Water could be mined on asteroids and dropped on the Moon for human use.

Today, space based mining is ridiculously difficult and expensive. A $100/kg launch starts to just make things ridiculously difficult. Then again, I’d have said yesterday that plucking a booster out the sky was difficult, but SpaceX made it look easy.

What Else?

A reusable Starship & booster change the game for humanity. Give it a few years of use and there will be use-cases not even considered today.